Since 1996, the 2-Year Treasury has been a good predictor for the path of the Fed Funds Rate.

Here using the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis monthly data, we see that the Effective Fed Funds Rate follow the 2-Year CMT in rate runups in 1999, 2004–2006, 2016–2018 and now 2021–2022. Keep your eyes on the 2 Year.

Paul Mangione
Fort Schuyler Advisors
www.ftschuyler.com

#bonds #bondmarket #bondmarkets #rates #ratehike #ratehikes #inflation #economy #economics #interestrates #interestrate #treasury #UST #federalreserve #fed #fedfunds #business #technology #innovation #data

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Paul Mangione Fort Schuyler Advisors

Federal Reserve data showing number of Federal Reserve Notes in circulation.

Since 2017 there have been more $100 notes than $1 notes.

In 2018, the Chicago Fed estimated that 80% of $100 notes are overseas.

Paul Mangione

Fort Schuyler Advisors

www.ftschuyler.com

#fed #federalreserve #banks #bank #banking #money #dollar #inflations #interest

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Manhattan Monthly Commercial Building Permits are below 1990 levels.

It appears that tenants move out and new ones do not move in so no new repairs or upgrades being made.

Looking at details from 2010 to 2019, monthly permits varied but centered around 3500 per month. Early in the pandemic, there was a dramatic shift down, but then the beginning of a recovery in late 2020. Since then permits have been falling off, reaching 430 commercial building permits (non-residential, not 1–3 family properties) in January 2022.

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Cox Automotive Inc. and Manheim data show wholesale used vehicle prices increased 3.1% in the first 15 days of December compared to the month of November. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 239.8, a 48.9% increase from December 2020. As was the case in October and November, much of the monthly increase was a result of the seasonal adjustment. The non-adjusted price increase through mid-December was 0.7%.

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